Cost-Effective Locations for Producing Fuels and Chemicals from Carbon Dioxide and Low-Carbon Hydrogen in the Future

This study investigates the cost and climate change mitigation potentials of fuels and chemicals from CO2 and low-carbon hydrogen produced in four sites with favorable conditions for renewable energy generation, located in Iceland, The Netherlands, Spain, and Chile. We investigate eight different chemicals, i.e., Fischer–Tropsch fuels, methanol, methane, dimethyl ether, ammonia, urea, olefins, and aromatics, considering two temporal horizons, i.e., the near future (by 2035) and the long-term future (post-2035). For hydrogen production, we explore alkaline water electrolysis, proton exchange membranes, and solid oxide electrolyzer cells. As carbon feedstock, we focus on CO2 produced via low-temperature solid adsorption direct air capture (LT DAC). Additionally, we investigate CO2 from high-temperature aqueous absorption DAC and point-source capture. We find that optimal renewable energy sites like the ones considered in this study have the potential to offer competitive costs for carbon capture and utilization (CCU) processes. These routes, when compared to the current price of their fossil-based counterparts, could achieve long-term future cost ratios ranging from 1 to 6.5 times, with a cost per ton of CO2eq avoided estimated between 150 and 750 €/t. In conclusion, this research provides valuable insights into the techno-economic feasibility of relying on fuels and chemicals via CCU processes as an energy policy strategy.

July 29, 2024

Decentralized ammonia production via electric Haber–Bosch (Haber–Bosch 2.0) could support shipping, chemical manufacturing, and local fertilizer supply chains. Unlike conventional Haber–Bosch systems, Haber–Bosch 2.0 technologies operate at lower pressures (∼30–60 bar) and temperatures (∼400 °C), enabling smaller, modular ammonia systems powered by low-carbon electricity. However, its economic viability and environmental performance under diverse conditions remain unclear. Here, we apply techno-economic and environmental life cycle assessment using a novel, open-source framework to optimally design ∼13 000 grid-connected, hybrid, and off-grid electric Haber–Bosch configurations worldwide. Our results demonstrate that decentralized ammonia production costs are between €740–4100 tNH3−1, which is substantially higher compared to centralized ammonia production (∼300 tNH3−1 historically with recent spikes up to ∼€800 tNH3−1). Hybrid configurations exhibit the lowest costs (€740–2090 tNH3−1), particularly in regions with low grid electricity prices, low capital costs, and/or abundant renewables. However, their GHG emissions vary widely depending on the GHG intensity of the local grid. Off-grid systems exhibit the lowest life cycle GHG emissions (on average 0.70 tCO2-eq. tNH3−1), but demonstrate high costs (more than €1100 tNH3−1), driven by oversized renewables and energy storage media to enable continuous Haber–Bosch operation. Cost parity may be achieved by 2050 through technology learning, especially for hybrid systems (€325 tNH3−1). To realize this potential and secure low-carbon fertilizer supply, policymakers should; (1) accelerate the decarbonization of national power grids, (2) provide early-stage deployment support for flexible, electric Haber–Bosch technologies, and (3) establish clear certification standards for low-carbon ammonia.

Cost-Effective Locations for Producing Fuels and Chemicals from Carbon Dioxide and Low-Carbon Hydrogen in the Future

Latest findings from research

3rd Annual Conference of the SWEET Consortium reFuel.ch Highlights Implementation Pathways for Sustainable Fuels

Haber–Bosch 2.0 for low-carbon ammonia production: a global techno-economic and environmental assessment

Strong interest in FOCA Aviation and Climate Funding Programme